Africa How the Nigerian presidency can help to improve food production

Ehime Alex (The ICIR): In assessing Nigeria’s agricultural production, in which aspect do you think the country failed to prioritise efforts in 2024?
Agbugba: The high cost of inputs has continued to pose a major challenge for both livestock and crop farmers. The cost of farm inputs especially feeds for livestock has continued to escalate. This is even more saddening that up till now, Nigeria’s food security situation is interlinked to a plethora of factors. Truly, agricultural production is inseparable from the conduct of other economic agents, as well as the structure of the food markets. This year, the adverse effect of fuel scarcity and outrageous hikes in price has affected virtually all the sectors of Nigeria’s economy and agriculture still stands tall.

The majority of Nigerian farmers (majorly smallholder-based) lack access to affordable capital. Over time, literature tells us that the agriculture sector employs over 70 per cent of Nigeria’s rural population, but what is more depressing is that farmers’ lack of affordable capital has no doubt stemmed and stifled by high interest rates.

The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its benchmark interest rate on 26th November 2024 by 25 basis points to a new record high of 27.5 per cent for the sixth time since this year. These exorbitant rates make it nearly impossible for farmers who are typically smallholders to secure the needed finance to scale up or expand operations or even adopt modern farming techniques. Truly, this is a major thread among other aspects in this seemingly tangled fabric of Nigeria’s food insecurity situation.

The ICIR: A recent survey by the United Nations projects that at least 33.1 million people in 26 states and the FCT will face a food and nutrition crisis in 2025. What is your take on this report?
The report corroborates with reality. You do not need expert analysis to understand the gravity of food insecurity in Nigeria. You can easily make contact with this reality in the streets, in markets, in religious centres and hospitals, among other centres. I am dispirited that the governments are not striving enough to tackle this issue with the right strategy. All I hear is lip service even in the face of alarming figures from the CBN on interest rates coupled with the widening gap of underemployed citizens, closure of companies, and hike in food prices.

The deposit interest rate in Nigeria is projected to be around 12.83 per cent in 2025 and 10.83 per cent in 2026. According to the Trading Economics Report, Nigeria’s inflation rate accelerated for the second straight month in October 2024, climbing to a four-month high of 33.9 per cent.

Meanwhile, the economy grew 3.46 per cent annually in the third quarter, its fastest pace in three quarters, driven by the services sector. The naira has depreciated by around 46 per cent against the dollar this year, partly due to efforts to allow it to float after being pegged at an artificially strong rate for years. It has also been affected by poor liquidity, despite CBN’s attempts to alleviate pressure by supplying dollars to meet domestic demand.

There is a relationship between poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition and if something real quick is not done, it will still play out badly on the economy

There is a relationship between poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition and if something real quick is not done, it will still play out badly on the economy. The majority of the Nigerian population is poor, in fact, in recent times, a lot of people have been plunged into severe cases of poverty. The report from the survey is timely. Any responsible government will put measures on the ground immediately to avert any disastrous humanitarian crisis by 2025.

The ICIR: The aftermath of devastating floods and insurgency is negatively impacting the food supply in the country. What should be done differently to change the tide?
First, the government must tackle insecurity head-on. This must not be by kinetic means alone. The government needs to be genuinely honest about dialoguing with these non-state actors to bring about lasting peace in Nigeria. Some of these insurgents may have germane reasons, such as negligence on the part of the government in delivering the goods of democracy, unemployment, inequality, and economic hardship.

Second, actions must be taken by governments at all levels to embank rivers in farming communities and dredge water channels where necessary.

Third, farmers should be encouraged to adopt the principle of insurance.

Fourth, the government should work more with agencies like the National Emergency Management Agency and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency in leveraging the merits of early warning notice periods to curtail the impact of flooding on farmers.

Actions must be taken by governments at all levels to embank rivers in farming communities and dredge water channels where necessary

Fifth, stakeholders in research and development should develop drought-resistant crops and venture into areas to build and restructure food and agricultural systems as that would encourage partnerships and collaborations between and among educational institutions in Nigeria and that of the global north as highlighted by SDG 17 – ‘strengthening global partnerships for sustainable development.’

I must underscore that collaborations, initiating some memorandum of understanding (MoU) or some joint project and grant funding opportunity, could be leveraged in bridging the gaps between research and industry. Interestingly, I am leading the collaboration between Rivers State University and the University of Rwanda, and the agriculture programmes of both institutions are at the fulcrum of the understanding. At the moment, we are working assiduously with partners to empower staff and students and inspire innovation as captured in the MoU.

The ICIR: Do you belong to the school of thought that believes climate change is not yet a major challenge to crop production in Nigeria? Why?
No, I do not belong to such a faction. If climate change is not real, why are people complaining about extreme hotness at some times and extreme coldness at other times?

For many Nigerians, the climate crisis is a harsh reality. In 2024 alone, a scorching heat wave swept across the country and the Northern region was hit particularly hard by extreme flooding. Heavy rains have led to flooding in many areas, destroying lives, and infrastructure, and submerging hectares of farmland. Truly, seasons are shifting and we now have more of the rains (rainy season) than the dry seasons in Southern Nigeria (especially in Rivers State which is at the heart of the South-South geopolitical zone). Some crop farmers wait longer after sowing their crops for the first rain to hit their farmlands at the end of the dry season.

Farmers are experiencing unpredictable rainfall, which affects the growth of crops like maize, okra, vegetables, cucumber, and garden eggs. They are also battling with new diseases, such as moulds, nematodes, and scabs, appearing on vegetables, hence, the increasingly high cost of those food items. Farmers are finding it difficult to meet the food demand of the state’s population. These drastic changes in weather patterns cannot be overlooked.

The ICIR: How likely is climate change becoming a major concern in Nigeria’s crop production in the next five years?
The majority of the Nigerian farmers are smallholders and totally depend upon the cultural ways of growing crops. Some are adverse to modern technologies and resistance to GMCs (genetically modified crops). Thus, with little or no technology to buffer the effect of climate change on the part of our large subsistence farmers, it will lead to food shortages, acute hunger, and cost-push inflation.

The majority of the Nigerian farmers are smallholders and totally depend upon the cultural ways of growing crops

It is quite saddening that some forecasts are projecting that temperatures will keep rising, and flood cases will keep heightening. Farmers should expect to see heavy rainfall and rising sea levels and of course, this would result in making coastal communities vulnerable to flooding. Also, more intense storms could cause more frequent combined sewer overflows which are combined wastewater and sewage from multiple drains and buildings. Also, increased water temperatures are bound to occur. The most immediate impact of climate change on rivers and lakes is expected to be an increase in water temperatures.

Other issues that could affect agriculture and farming in the next 5 years include: increased nutrient loads, among other droughts and more water-related disasters. Please I am not a prophet of doom but I know climate change issues can be excessively deep and entrenching.

The ICIR: How can the government make farming attractive for its teeming population whose thoughts of leaving the country remain convincing amid the frustration in finding a job?
I wish to reckon that the previous government made great efforts in proposing policies to advance agriculture. However, along the line, they failed to prioritise favourable policies that would advance the economy through the sector. I wish to recommend the following approaches which align with the Brain Re-engineering initiative I developed for rebranding agriculture for the youth to regain their interest in agriculture.

• Provide a well-structured plan, program and agenda on youth capacity development and training on modern farming techniques and agribusiness management.


• Create awareness and further promote agricultural technology options for youths to support their knowledge, as well as build their skills on digital solutions for farming, such as drone technology and mobile apps.


• Provide financial options and support for youths in the form of low-interest loans, grants, and crowdfunding platforms.


• Provide access to land that would enhance land policy implementation that promises affordable leasing options or long-term land rights for young farmers.


• Establish partnerships to foster collaborations with private sector and international agencies to create opportunities for the youth.


• Improve security nets to ensure the safety of farmers’ lives and properties. This will not just enhance adequate farmers’ security but will guarantee an effective and peaceful cultivation of farms by the farmers.


• Stimulate cooperative farming and would nonetheless, offer farmers the opportunity to enjoy the pros of cooperation such as sharing the cost of machinery and marketing their produce.


• Establish government-reserved farmer states for a while.

Indeed, the Brain Re-engineering Model (BRM) revolves around 5 pillars which are: change of perception, ideation and entrepreneurship, technology amalgamation, sustainability and circular economy; and social equity in public policy. Adapting the BRM implies that the Federal Government of Nigeria would enforce policies that would favour farmers in such a way that the youths would be attracted to farming as it promises to improve their quality of life to achieve self-sustained growth in the sector. In so doing, the agriculture sector’s potential to contribute to her GDP (gross domestic product) would be somewhat significant.

The ICIR: You mentioned that policies of pass governments could be leveraged to advance agricultural production. What policies do you speak of, and what impacts could they have?
I am of the view that the present government should revisit the Agricultural Development Projects (ADP) of 1974, Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) of 1976, Green Revolution (GR) of 1980, Farm Settlement Scheme (FSS) of 1959, and National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) of 1999 ìf they want to advance agricultural production. They should appraise these policies to see the ones that align with the trending needs and challenges in the agriculture sector. I wish to recommend that the government should seize every opportunity to provide a platform to appraise past or antiquated policies. I am confident that this will go a long way to identifying the bottlenecks, developing strategies that would enhance the production of food, ensuring food security for all Nigerians, improving policy performances, and reducing brain drain or turnover among the youths, among other gains. The Federal Government of Nigeria has pledged to increase agricultural input supply to boost food production; and this is supposed to be part of a broader strategy to revamp the sector, address food insufficiency, and empower farmers.

The present agriculture promotion policy hinges upon past national food and agricultural policies which are founded on the following guiding principles: agriculture as a business; agriculture as a key to long-term economic growth and security; food as a human right; value chain development; market orientation, to mention a few. Undoubtedly, the Federal Government of Nigeria should work together with stakeholders such as the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Non-Governmental Organisations and private investors to encourage policies that would foster the incorporation of some technological options. Hence, the critical role that youths play in reshaping and advancing the agriculture sector, especially in the age of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) cannot be overstated. And that is the core of the Brain Re-engineering Initiative.