Three major government policy responses were observed.

Firstly, governments adopted protectionist trade policies in major agricultural producing countries. In the early days of the pandemic, Russia, Kazakhstan, Cambodia, Vietnam, amongst others, introduced export quotas and bans on rice and wheat. These quotas were implemented to ensure stable domestic staple food supplies. These protectionist trade policies were, however, soon abandoned as global agri-food supply chains remained operational, albeit under strict regulations. As initial worries about production abated, it became clear that the biggest challenge was not a lack of food in the market, but logistical disruptions.

Secondly, governments supported supply-side operations through historic budgetary support. In developed countries with deep pockets, these support mechanisms included financial relief programmes for small and large businesses. In developing countries, financial support was ring-fenced in various government departments to support financially distressed small-scale producers on a case by case basis.

Thirdly, governments supported the demand side by boosting household incomes through wage support. Governments in developed countries supported its citizens' food security while simultaneously stimulating food demand by introducing income support programs. The income support was in response to the rapid increases in unemployment rates in most parts of the world and subsequent weak demand for high-value food products in particular. Income protection and support in developed countries are expected to mitigate some of the weakening demand, to support a quicker recovery of the global economy post-COVID-19. Meanwhile, in developing countries, South Africa has been amongst countries that provided support through their unemployment fund, payment holidays from financial institutions, increased social grants, and food vouchers. While these are short term support strategies, they help improve household demand for food products but more importantly support already vulnerable livelihoods.

US: 48.7 millions jobs still lost, changing food patterns
Against this backdrop, the remainder of this piece will be dedicated to a brief overview of the effects of the pandemic in the agri-food sectors of selected countries, including the United States of America (USA), Canada, Australia, South Africa and Costa Rica.The USA occupies a unique position in the current pandemic, being the country with the most reported cases worldwide by far. According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research, the USA had the second most fatalities per 100,000 persons, coming only after the United Kingdom1. As expected, the economy has been adversely affected with over 48.7 million jobs lost as of the first week of July 20202. While most sectors have experienced a decline, the food and beverage sector got a boost indicated by a 25% increase in the first quarter of the year.
The forecast for crop markets is grimmer, with experts predicting that crop prices may settle at a new low without a possible rebound in the future
This is mostly due to changing food consumption patterns with people consuming more food at home compared to the foodservice sector, such as at restaurants. This situation was also exacerbated by high incidences of panic-buying at the onset of the pandemic. This shift in consumer behaviour to mostly home-based consumption resulted in several changes in retail, including a change in size offerings from industrial to retail sized offerings, and a ramping up of online grocery shopping3.

The upstream agri-food chain was more adversely impacted by the pandemic as large meat packing plants were closed as a result of COVID-19 infections among staff, which led to a subsequent decline in the demand for livestock at farm level. These closures ultimately resulted in reduced prices for livestock producers, which further intensified the cost-price-squeeze and higher prices for processed meat4. However, more recently, there have been signs of hope powered by improvements in the processing capacity of the meat packing plants5. A similar situation was observed in the US crop markets due to the virus' impact on the health of farmworkers, possible labour shortages, reduced demand for crops as feed input in the livestock industry and in the foodservice sector restaurants. Unfortunately, the forecast for crop markets is grimmer, with experts predicting that crop prices may settle at a new low without a possible rebound in the future6.

Producers who had off-take markets for their products faced labor shortages due to restrictions on labor mobility due to border closures. Some of these farms have had to shut down their operations because they were unable to find willing workers to harvest crops
Canada: ripple effects in the food chain
In Canada, the pandemic exacerbated the agricultural sector's exposure to many challenges. These include restrictions to trade, disruptions in supply chains, and labor shortages. Recently Canadians have been caught in a dispute between China and the US, which has impacted relations with one of their biggest trade partners. These issues have affected the trade of some major commodities, including canola, soybeans, and pulses. India has also added a tariff on lentils, another major export crop, which means searching for alternative markets in already turbulent times. COVID-19 has exposed some inefficiencies in meeting the demands of Canadian producers in several supply chains with the closing of restaurants and schools. Vegetables, particularly potatoes that were destined for restaurants, are now rotting in storage. Similar to the situation in the US, slaughterhouses, and food processing plants have had to close because of the increased risk of COVID 19 infections amongst workers. The ripple effect caused by these closures led many producers to dump their milk and keeping livestock in the system resulting in significant cash flow constraints. To make matters worse, those producers who had off-take markets for their products faced labor shortages due to restrictions on labor mobility due to border closures. Some of these farms have had to shut down their operations because they were unable to find willing workers to harvest crops. The opening of some of the borders brought with it some level of normalcy, which could benefit the producers in the long run.

The relatively slow response in the supply chain as a result of the sudden demand shock led to empty shelves and caused a second wave of panic
Australia: disruption of value-added activities
Australia is a net exporter of food, exporting over 70% of its agricultural production annually, while importing about 11% of its food7. Its position as a net exporter of food indicated that COVID-19 would not necessarily threaten the country's food security. The country's agri-food chains are served by large-scale actors, including large logistics firms, supermarkets and processors. Although the disruptions associated with the pandemic had no drastic effect on farming thus far, it disrupted value-added activities.

The initial, and probably most apparent challenge faced by the food and agribusiness sectors in Australia was the drastic increase in demand, caused by panic buying. Unfortunately, the relatively slow response in the supply chain as a result of the sudden demand shock led to empty shelves and caused a second wave of panic. Agribusinesses reacted to this by employing more hired labour to fill gaps in the chain. An increase in online shopping and innovations in e-commerce were also experienced. Upstream of the supermarket, with borders effectively closed, logistics slowed, and imports of packaging materials which are usually sourced from China were highly affected. The seafood industry, which is also heavily reliant on export markets was significantly impacted as the demand for premium seafood decreased, and the logistics to support trade was stretched thin for the transport of essential supplies.

At the moment, the decreased availability of farm labor is of enormous concern to the agri-food sector, and ultimately Australia's food security. Over the years, over 40 0008 seasonal workers from across the world have flocked to Australia to work on farms during the harvest season. The current closure of borders means that producers might have to look for alternatives to fill these harvest positions. Labor is a looming crisis that needs prompt reaction if a pending food security crisis is to be avoided.

Fortunately, agricultural trade was spared to a large extent, and the disruptions on the movement of products have been minimal
South Africa: a pending distaster, like Australia
Similar to Australia, the South African agricultural sector faced a pending disaster in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic with its high reliance on exporting its high-value products. Fortunately, agricultural trade was spared to a large extent, and the disruptions on the movement of products have been minimal. Currently, similar to the US and Canada, the agri-food chain is at higher risk of disruptions in the food supply as a result of COVID-19 infections and subsequent closures of facilities, especially at critical points in these chains.

Locally, South Africa also felt the pressure of panic buying in the early days of COVID-19. Many of the supermarkets logged record sales, some even surpassing sales recorded over the Christmas holidays, which placed their food value chain logistics under enormous pressure. Products with longer shelf life such as UHT milk, canned goods, pasta, and eggs also gained popularity. The closure of the foodservice sector also brought the previously increasing “food away from home” trend to an abrupt halt and made way for home-cooked meals. These changes shifted food items such as chicken portions and potatoes from the foodservice sector to supermarket shelves, which led to a decrease in retail prices. Food items such as apples, that usually made their way to lunch boxes initially saw a significant drop in demand and prices. Interestingly, the demand and prices for pineapples, and later apples, increased as South Africans reverted to the home brewing of beer following the extended ban on liquor sales. Food items believed to boost the immune system, such as citrus fruits, ginger, and garlic saw significant increases in demand and prices. Many supermarket chains reported less frequent visits to physical shops and increased traffic on their online channels.

Despite many challenges brought about by COVID-19 mentioned above, the South African agri-food chain is standing firm and continues to support the livelihoods of many citizens. Although the growth in the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2020 supported employment, social distancing regulations could have a severe negative impact on further growth in employment, especially in the short term. In the longer term, automation post-COVID-19, driven by labor shortages in large parts of the developed world due to restrictions on labor movement, is likely to accelerate the adoption of mechanization which could impact on employment. However, compared to other segments of the food value chain, specifically the foodservice sector, the decline in employment in the agricultural sector is negligible. As the livelihoods of many of its citizens are now also threatened the government's primary responsibility would be to keep the economy's wheels turning to ensure food security.

As the pandemic developed, the drop in demand for exports from Costa Rica highlighted the importance of local consumers
Central and South America: the example of Costa Rica
The countries of central and South America have been enduring many and often contradictory changes and trends in its economies and policies. As economies based on agriculture destined for exports to broader markets with a small variety of products and some activity interregional, many weaknesses were exposed by COVID-19. Costa Rica is seen as one of the countries around with one of the most reliable health care systems and well-positioned to handle the pandemic. As at July, the country had recorded a mortality rate of only 0.4% since an emergency was declared on March 6th. Costa Rica faces a new reality in the agri-food value chain as most of the markets for its products, as well as foreign suppliers were adversely affected.

As the pandemic developed, the drop in demand for exports from Costa Rica highlighted the importance of local consumers. It became apparent that to achieve sustainability in Costa Rica and the Central America region, the primary market needs to be explored, and strategies need to be developed to ensure closer markets that would provide Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) with a competitive advantage. SMEs constitute more than 95% of businesses in Costa Rica9. It is therefore vital to diversify products in seamless distribution, differentiate the existing products, and have a competitive business plan to access funds. For professionals in large companies, leading the change to sustainable practices and integral objectives will be the main challenge within their new reality.

As one of the four most competitive economies in Latin America, yet with the highest cost of production10, the country’s strategy going forward must also center around efficiency and productivity enhancement driven by data and prioritization of climate smartness. Collaboration and funding from multilateral sources is also one area that holds great promise in Costa Rica. Even though connectivity is one of the biggest challenges around the region, Costa Rica has the advantage of leading the Central America region in internet penetration11. The use of technology and data in agriculture is one of the areas in which the skills of young professionals can be leveraged especially in these times of limited movement.

There is no telling how long the global food system will continue to sustain the pressure from COVID-19. Particularly worrying is the lack of support measures for businesses and households in developing countries
Continuous test on a global scale
In a nutshell, the resilience of global agriculture will continue to be tested as the pandemic impacts both the supply side and demand side of the global economy. There is no telling how long the global food system – as currently configured – will continue to sustain the pressure from COVID-19. What is becoming increasingly clear is that, the longer the pandemic continues to impact on the global food system supply and demand, the more likely structural shifts become that will fundamentally reconfigure the system as it adapts to the changing effects of the pandemic. What is particularly worrying is the lack of support measures for businesses and households in developing countries. In resource-poor nations, especially those in the African continent who are already under the weight of worsening debt levels, governments do not have the wherewithal to support private businesses and farming communities to the same degree as the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and others. The developing world remains a fundamental part of the global food system and global economy that remains exceptionally vulnerable to the pandemic.

Despite the loss of incomes and a subsequent contraction in demand, the global agri-food chains seem to be resilient enough, although in varying degrees, to weather the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic at least in the short term. We are of the opinion, that the global agri-food sectors have the potential to drive economic growth during the post-COVID-19 recovery phase.

References
1. Coronavirus mortality rates. John Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center. 2020. [Online] Available from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality. [Accessed: 12 July 2020].
2. Congressional Research Service. 2020. Global Economic Effects of COVID-19. Updated July 2, 2020.
3. Iyer, A. 2020. Supply Chain Issues in Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Food and Agricultural Markets (Lusk et al, Eds). Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) commentary. June 2020
4. Congressional Research Service. 2020. COVID-19 Disrupts U.S. Meat Supply; Producer Prices Tumble. CRS Insight, April 29, 2020.
5. Lusk, J. 2020. Update on Meat and Livestock Markets in the Wake of COVID. [Online] Available from: http://jaysonlusk.com/?offset=1591202155570. [Accessed: 28 May 2020].
6. Hobbs, T. and Irwin, S. 2020. Crop Markets Suffer Massive Demand Shock from COVID-19 in Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Food and Agricultural Markets (Lusk et al, Eds). Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) commentary. June 2020.
7. ABARES. 2020. Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2020. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
8. Abc.net.au. 2020. Fears For Fruit And Vegetable Industry As Farm Labour Crunch Looms. [Online] Available from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-06-23/farmers-warn-no-seasonal-workers-will-leave-fruit-to-rot/12374016 [Accessed 13 July 2020].
9. Ministry of Economy, Industry and Commerce Costa Rica. 2019. Estudio Situacional de las PYMES, 2012-2017. (PDF online) Available at: http://reventazon.meic.go.cr/informacion/estudios/2019/pyme/INF-012-19.pdf
10. K. Schwab. 2019. The Global Competitiveness Report 2019. World Economic Forum (On line) Available at: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf
11. https://www.speedtest.net/reports/central-america/


The International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA) is pleased to introduce the young board and invite you to a interactive online session where we will be discussing ‘the role of youths in global post-COVID Agri-food systems.’
Date 20th July 2020; 15:00GMT+2 (3 PM Amsterdam time).

Please register here.

OVERVIEW
It is quite apparent that COVID has disrupted many sectors, including one of the essential sectors – the Agri-food sector. Border closures, quarantine, market closures, supply chains, value chains, and trade disruptions have restricted our access to diverse and nutritious sources of food, especially in countries that relied heavily on food imports and those with substantially low food security.
The most impacted people were those who lacked the financial and logistical means to stockpile food before the pandemic’s restrictive measures were implemented.
In the midst of these, we have also seen very laudable adaptations across the various sectors..
We can confidently say that the pandemic accelerated the adoption of some technologies and practices in every sector, especially, the agri-food sector and they are here to stay. In light of this, IFAMA is organising an online session to discuss the role of youths in global post-COVID Agri-food systems.

SCOPE
The Webinar will mainly focus on the impacts of COVID-19 on the industry, academia, agricultural value chains and the NGO space. The panellists will share their experiences on observed disruption, and adaptations of agri-food systems to the pandemic, and the role of youths in devising strategies and practices for the adaptation and increased responsiveness of Agriculture value chain actors, especially vulnerable consumers to the new normal.

EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• Highlighting the impacts of COVID-19 on agri-food systems, and the necessary adaptations it facilitated.
• Discussing the roles of youths in driving resilience and increased responsiveness to the new normal of a post COVID world.